The arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov on August 24 has significantly impacted the price of Toncoin (TON), the native cryptocurrency of The Open Network (TON). Following Durov's detention in France, Toncoin's value plummeted by 27%, dropping to $5, and it has since struggled to recover. This sharp decline has caused Toncoin to fall out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, currently vying for the 11th spot with Cardano, which is trading close to $1.
In the latest attempt to free Durov, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has demanded that France release Durov as he is an Emirati citizen.
Read more: Toncoin Open Interest Soars After Telegram CEO's Arrest
Despite the downturn, TON whales—large holders of the cryptocurrency—have exhibited notable behaviour, accumulating substantial amounts of Toncoin during the price dip. This activity suggests that these investors might be anticipating a potential release of Durov, which could serve as a catalyst for a significant price rebound.
Data from Santiment, a blockchain analytics platform, reveals that whales purchased between $3.29 million and $3.48 million worth of Toncoin at its recent low. This accumulation continued steadily from August 20 to August 25, even as some whales sold between $4.07 million and $3.98 million worth of the asset. The spike in whale transactions on August 26, the largest since early June, indicates that major holders are positioning themselves for a possible price surge, which could be triggered by developments in Durov's legal situation.
Read more: Macron Responds to Telegram CEO’s Arrest, Denies Political Motive
The heightened whale activity coincides with a spike in daily active addresses (DAA) and transaction counts on the TON network, which are considered bullish signals. High network activity often correlates with increased volatility and potential price recovery. Additionally, key market indicators such as the 30-day and 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios for Toncoin have entered the oversold zone, signalling a potential buying opportunity. Historically, such low MVRV levels have preceded price rebounds, as was the case in early August when Toncoin reached a new all-time high shortly after a similar MVRV dip.
Adding to the speculation surrounding Toncoin's future, the recent launch of "Dogs" (DOGS), another project linked to Durov on the TON blockchain, has garnered significant attention. The DOGS airdrop, one of the largest events on the network since Notcoin, generated a surge in transactions that nearly overwhelmed the network, causing delays in processing times. This surge in activity could further influence Toncoin's price trajectory, especially if Durov's legal situation is resolved favourably.
As the market awaits further developments, the combination of whale accumulation, high network activity, and potential catalysts like Durov's release suggests that Toncoin could experience significant price volatility in the near term. Whether this leads to a recovery and a return to all-time highs remains to be seen, but the ongoing speculation and market movements indicate that investors are closely watching the situation.
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